Improved Climatic Nulls
نویسندگان
چکیده
Weather and climate prediction rely on inherently different predictors at different time scales. Some of the variability in precipitation on climate time-scales (i.e., interannual) could be attributed to accumulated noise on weather (i.e., daily) time-scales. To determine a lower bound on how much climate variability is due to processes at climate time-scales, weather generator models with no mechanism for interannual variability aside from short term (weather-scale) memory structure are created as nulls against which to compare the observational record of precipitation variability. These models can then be used to assess potential predictability in the observational record as well as in Global Climate Models, even at different spatial scales. Initial comparisons are presented.
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